Expert: the terror policy in Tajikistan will lead to a social explosion

The Tajik President Emomali Rahmon addressed an annual message to the country’s Parliament. During his speech, Rahmon demanded to introduce a number of important changes in the legislation, government agencies and the social sphere. How effective will the President’s proposals be, and what is the overall situation in the country today, a political scientist from Tajikistan said in an interview with ACCA on condition of anonymity.

 – What was the difference between the current presidential message and the previous ones?

– The main difference is that next year parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in the country, and Rahmon’s current message was more like an election campaign. The President spoke too much about achievements, often without any foundation, but only on the basis of dry statistics, which are annually prepared by order of the authorities.

– Rahmon said that the number of migrants leaving Tajikistan to earn money decreased by 60%. Can’t you believe this data too?

– Undoubtedly! Firstly, the comparison is with 2010, which is already surprising. Why this year, and not the last years? Secondly, today, in addition to Russia, Tajik citizens go to work in many countries of Europe and Asia. However, only the statistics of the Russian migration service are several times higher than the data in Tajikistan. Many travelers simply do not count. In addition, the country’s population is increasing annually by about 250 000, which is significant figures, and today we can say with confidence that the number of migrants is increasing every year. This is primarily due to total corruption with scanty earnings, which people lack even for food. Worst of all, many wealthy people leave the country and start their own business in other countries where there is no threat of raider seizures and countless checks by government agencies that systematically engage in extortion.

– However, Rahmon during his speech warned government agencies to stop unreasonable inspections of entrepreneurs.

– He talks about this all the time, but he is well aware that government officials also want to live a normal life, and in return for loyalty to the head of state, they demand their share. It should be noted that many posts in the country are being sold, and the President’s family is engaged in this. Every year, only from the sale of posts, Rahmon’s family budget receives hundreds of millions dollars. To return this money, officials are engaged in corruption and force their employees to do it, who also have their own percentage from this “profit”. Thus, this entire state machine is actually robbing entrepreneurs who are already crushed by the world’s heaviest tax system. Therefore, all that the President says is for his own rehabilitation in the eyes of ordinary citizens. People often say that “the President is good, but he is surrounded by bad people who do not tell him the truth”. It is not the first year that the President’s administration has been headed by the President’s daughter, who is responsible for citizens’ appeals. Every year, citizens send tens of thousands appeals to the President with a request to solve their problems, but in most cases these letters are ignored, or go down the power vertical directly to those officials who are guilty of these problems. And those, at their discretion, deal with their offenders.

– The President also demanded that the law enforcement and security agencies be cleared of corrupt officials and random people…

– Such statements have long been laughable even among ordinary people. Everyone understands that this is just populism. All the country corrupt officials work for the President’s family, and random people get into government agencies due to relations with the President’s family. For example, how did a person, who did not even have a higher education, come and occupy high position in the customs service? I am talking about the driver of the President’s daughter, whom he publicly exposed and immediately relieved of responsibility for the committed crimes. Today he works for one of the companies owned by the President’s family. Another example is the current head of the criminal investigation department of the Tajik Ministry of Internal Affairs, Shokhrukh Saidzoda. Everyone knows that he is the best friend of the President’s son, so he literally took off on the career ladder. There are hundreds of such examples, and all of them are from the President’s entourage.

– Emomali Rahmon promised to give each family in Tajikistan the book “Tajiks”, which will be published at the expense of the President’s fund. What is this fund?

– Probably this is the most mysterious question in Tajikistan. It is known that the funds for this fund come from the country budget, but in what amounts and for what exactly these funds are spent is kept secret. Regularly during his trips to the regions of the country, the President makes some gifts to needy citizens from this fund, declaring that these are his gifts. State media also present this information as if the President makes these gifts at his own expense. In fact, this is budgetary, which means national money, and in this case it is inappropriate to say that the “President gave” it.

– What did Rahmon mean when he said that banks should not create a state in a state?

– This is another message to the heads of private banks that do not belong to the President’s family. In the banking sector, there has long been a struggle for influence and income. Most importantly, there are direct attempts at raider seizure of private banks by the President’s family. To protect their business, the leaders of private banks introduce foreign citizens into the founders and inject foreign investment. In the event of a bank seizure, the scandal will be international, and this is not beneficial for the President’s family. Now several banks, created by the presidential clan, are actively developing in the country, and soon they can absorb the rest of the banks; so it can be called a raider seizure. The presidential family uses all administrative resources for this. Private banks systematically have numerous checks that can take months, enormous fines are imposed, and the leaders of private banks are changed by “the hands” of the National bank. The bankruptcy of several large banks in the country is also a consequence of these actions. The banking system of Tajikistan is not in the best position, but soon the authorities can bring the system to a catastrophe.

– The President called on law enforcement agencies to coordinate actions in the fight against terrorism, and ordered the Parliament to prepare a draft law on regulation to the law “On the fight against terrorism”. How relevant is this problem in Tajikistan today? And will the new law be more severe?

– By this decree, the President once again gave law enforcement authorities wide powers to combat this phenomenon, but nothing good can be expected from this. There has always been unhealthy competition between the law enforcement and security agencies of Tajikistan, so coordination is simply impossible. On the contrary, law enforcement agencies have long organized competitions among themselves on the principle: who will catch extremists and terrorists more. Because of this hectic activity, today thousands of innocent people are imprisoned. They are sent to prisons without any evidence, only to increase statistics, to report to administration and receive ranks and awards. Many law enforcement officers have made their careers this way. The high level of detection of so-called terrorists is very necessary for the Tajik authorities. Western countries regularly criticize the Rahmon’s regime for human rights violations, and the President needs a counterargument in the form of the fight against terrorism. Western countries are already frightened by information about Islamic terrorism, therefore they turn a blind eye to all offenses in Tajikistan, accepting Emomali Rahmon as an important partner in the fight against terrorism. The main thing is that on this basis, the West continues to provide multimillion-dollar grants, loans and technical assistance to Tajikistan, which the authorities really need, otherwise the country will experience an economic collapse. Thus, the Tajik authorities speculate on issues of terrorism, and thousands of innocent people are paying for it in prisons. Therefore, in Tajikistan every 2-3 years an amnesty is announced to release overcrowded prisons. As for the new version of the law “On the fight against terrorism”, I am afraid it will be tightened and the terrorist policy in Tajikistan will intensify even more, and this may lead to a social explosion.