The constructor of New Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who took over the reins of power from the hands of the first President, Nursultan Nazarbayev (who led the country for almost 30 years). It looks like he also intends to stay in power as much as possible. In his annual message to the people, Tokayev announced early presidential elections and an increase in presidential terms from 5 to 7 years.
In order to understand what is really hidden behind these, at first glance, completely innocent proposals, we should plunge into the history of independent Kazakhstan.
After the collapse of the USSR, the post of president was established in the republic, which was taken by the first secretary of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Here it should be clarified that the post of the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party at the level of the republic was actually equated with the post of head of state. In December 1991, the first presidential elections were held in the country, in which Nazarbayev won 98% of the vote. In 1993, the Constitution was adopted in Kazakhstan, according to which the terms of presidential powers were 5 years, and the current head of state could be re-elected to this post only once. However, there was no democratic change of power. In 1998, the Constitution was amended, according to which the presidential term was increased to 7 years, and the age limit for presidential candidates at 65 was abolished. At that time, Nazarbayev was already 58 years old. After that, the second presidential elections were held, in which Nursultan Nazarbayev won again. In 2000, the country’s Constitutional Council considered that Nazarbayev’s powers as President should be counted from the moment the Constitution was amended. That is, the Constitutional Council actually nullified Nazarbayev’s presidency. By the way, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will also use a similar technique in the future.
In 2005, Nazarbayev won the next presidential election. And the next changes were made to the Constitution. So the term of presidential powers was again reduced to 5 years, but Nazarbayev was allowed to run for President an unlimited number of times. In February 2011, Nazarbayev was again re-elected. In 2015, he was re-elected for a fifth term.
In March 2019, Nazarbayev resigned his presidency ahead of schedule, transferring power to the speaker of the Senate (Upper House of Parliament) Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. At the same time, it was agreed that Tokayev would be acting President until the end of the remaining term of the presidency assigned to Nursultan Nazarbayev, if he had not resigned.
However, in June 2019, extraordinary presidential elections were held in Kazakhstan. As Tokayev and Nazarbayev explained then, this was done in order to give the process of power transit legitimacy in the eyes of the population.
The next presidential election was to take place in the summer of 2024. However, Tokayev decided to follow the successful example of his predecessor and, speaking with a message to the people, announced that he had decided to shorten his current presidential term and therefore called early elections.
“For me, the interests of the state are above all. Therefore, I am ready to go to early presidential elections, even despite the reduction of my own term of power,” Tokayev said.
However, the interests of the state cannot be higher than their own interests, especially for those who are in power. Especially when it comes to Kazakhstan: the story of Nursultan Nazarbayev and his presidency is a very clear example of this. Tokayev was no exception either. He openly stated that he intends to participate in early presidential elections.
“I consider it necessary to start a comprehensive reset of key state institutions in accordance with the new strategy. This will allow us to intensify joint work for the well-being of every citizen and the prosperity of the whole country. For the successful implementation of cardinal and comprehensive reforms aimed at constructing a Fair Kazakhstan, a new mandate of people’s trust is required,” he explained.
However, the surprises didn’t end there. Tokayev said that he needed not just a mandate for the next five years, but a mandate with an extended presidential term.
“After much thought, I came to the conclusion that there is a need to review the number and duration of presidential terms. I propose to limit the presidential mandate to one term of 7 years without the right to re-election. What is this initiative based on? On the one hand, 7 years is a sufficient period for the implementation of any ambitious program. On the other hand, limiting the presidential mandate to one term will ensure the maximum focus of the head of state on solving the strategic tasks of national development. The constitutional novel, that I propose, will significantly reduce the risks of power monopolization. That is why I propose to introduce the rule of a one-time presidency,” he said.
And judging by the text of the speech, Tokayev has no doubts about his own victory in the early elections.
“After the elections, I will submit an initiative that limits the powers of the president to one term for consideration by the Parliament. If it is adopted, a new political era will begin in Kazakhstan, the President said.
And all this is very reminiscent of the actions of Nursultan Nazarbayev in the early terms of the presidency, when the thirst for power began to absorb him completely.
As for the proposals for a one-term presidency, it is still in the air. It shouldn’t be forgotten that during the years of independence of Kazakhstan, the Constitution was amended 6 times – in 1998, 2007, 2011, 2017, 2019 and 2022. The last time changes were made to 33 articles of the basic law of the country. So, once again, Tokayev can easily remake the Constitution for himself. Nazarbayev succeeded in this, and he succeeded in it too. His promises, apparently, are worth nothing. After all, literally at the end of January of this year, immediately after the January riots, in an interview with the state TV channel Khabar, Tokayev promised that there would be no zeroing of the presidential terms.
“I don’t know how long I will be the President of Kazakhstan, but absolutely for sure in accordance with the Constitution, no more than two terms. That is, there will be no alteration of laws, and even more so of the Constitution,” he assured.
